Prediction Module

Before every fixture, the match model publishes win, draw and loss probabilities. Predictions are locked two days before the match and never revised; once a match is completed, the prediction is evaluated against the actual result. This page shows the current projection, upcoming predictions, and the model's accuracy to date.

Cumulative Points — Actual & Projected

Cumulative points by round. Solid lines show actual results; dashed lines show the projection based on the model's locked predictions for the remaining fixtures. Hover a round for the full ranking.

Upcoming Predictions

All fixtures with a locked prediction. Predicted goals are the model's expected goals for each side, shown unrounded.

Model Performance

All figures below cover completed matches only, comparing each locked prediction against the actual result.

Accuracy by Round

Correct and incorrect result predictions per round.

Prediction History

The complete list of evaluated predictions: pre-match probabilities, the predicted and actual result, and the predicted and actual score. Records are never removed or revised.

Methodology: probabilities are produced by a Poisson goals model fitted on the previous two seasons of results. Predictions refresh nightly and are locked two days before the match; nothing is predicted or revised inside that window. The predicted result is the highest-probability outcome, and a prediction counts as correct when that outcome occurs. Expected points are 3 × win probability + 1 × draw probability. For reference, always predicting a home win has historically yielded around 45% accuracy in La Liga. The model estimates draw probabilities but rarely selects a draw as the most likely outcome — a draw is seldom more probable than the stronger side winning.